http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/

MEMO TO: Reporters and Editorial Writers
RE: New IPCC Assessment of Global Warming Solutions
FROM: Emily Robinson, Union of Concerned Scientists, 202-331-5427
DATE: May 2, 2007
GLOBAL WARMING: AND NOW FOR THE SOLUTIONS
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Friday will release a summary of the
scientific, technological and economic solutions for global warming. The summary will provide a general
overview of the policy options available worldwide to stabilize and reduce global warming emissions and
calculate the economic cost of those actions. The summary does not outline specific options for the
United States.
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) has been working on solutions for decades. UCS experts have
identified a suite of technological and policy solutions that would enable the United States to dramatically
reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases that cause climate change.
Currently the United States, with less than 5 percent of the world’s population, is responsible for about 25
percent of the world’s global warming emissions. Scientists around the world have warned that a global
average temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial age levels
would be extremely dangerous. To prevent that amount of warming, the United States must reduce its
emissions by at least 80 percent of 2000 levels by mid-century. To reach that target, the United States
needs to encourage greater energy efficiency in every sector of the economy and:
• Put a mandatory, steadily declining cap on global warming emissions
• Build more efficient, less-polluting cars
• Promote renewable energy sources
• Protect U.S. forests and help developing countries curb tropical deforestation
Fortunately there are readily available solutions that not only would protect the planet, but create new
domestic jobs, save Americans billions of dollars annually, strengthen our national security, and protect
public health at the same time.
So how do we get there? With a change in public policy. There are a number of bills in Congress right
now that would move the country in the right direction, including ones that would institute a carbon “capand-
trade” program limiting global warming emissions, others establishing a standard for the amount of
electricity that comes from clean, renewable energy sources, and still others that require automakers to
significantly boost vehicle fuel economy.
BUILD MORE EFFICIENT, LESS-POLLUTING CARS
Producing and burning fuel to power cars and trucks produces 25 percent of U.S. global warming
pollution. Reducing emissions from vehicles will require more efficient cars, cleaner fuels, and improved
access to public transit and other methods to reduce travel.
Increasing fuel efficiency would help combat global warming, reduce our nation’s dependence on oil, and
save consumers billions of dollars at the pump. A UCS analysis found that a 35 mpg average by 2018 and
a 4 percent improvement annually thereafter would save Americans $31 billion, reduce oil demand by 3.1
million barrels per day, and cut global warming pollution by 523 million metric tons in 2025. Existing
technology can deliver this performance while preserving today’s acceleration, size and safety. For more
information, go to: www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/cars_pickups_suvs/
Boosting fuel economy isn’t the only way to improve vehicles. Coupled with more efficient cars, clean
hydrogen, renewable electricity and biofuels could reduce global warming pollution from the
transportation sector. For example, a vehicle running on a mixture of 15 percent gasoline and 85 percent
cellulosic ethanol (E85) (ethanol made from grasses, wood chips and other organic material) would emit
75 percent less global warming pollution. In the near term, vehicles running on E85 made from corn emit
10 to 30 percent less global warming pollution than those running on pure gasoline, depending on how
the corn is grown and harvested. For more information, go to:
www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/fuel_economy/ethanol-frequently-asked-questions.html.
UCS automotive engineers recently put together a blueprint for a vehicle that combines these solutions
(plus an improved air conditioning system) to cut global warming pollution by more than 40 percent,
exceeding the global warming pollution standard for cars and trucks adopted by California and 10 other
states. Automakers are currently fighting those standards in court. The off-the-shelf elements in the UCS
minivan package, dubbed the Vanguard, would add about $300 to its price, but operational savings would
result in more than $1,300 in lifetime consumer savings, with a payback in less than two years. All of the
technologies in the Vanguard are in vehicles on the road today, but automakers have yet to combine them
all in one single package. For more information, go to:
www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/vehicles_health/ucs-vanguard.html.
PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
Seventy percent of our nation’s electricity comes from burning coal, natural gas or oil; this accounts for
33 percent of U.S. global warming pollution. Clean, renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar,
geothermal and bioenergy (but not including hydroelectricity), currently account for only 2.5 percent of
the nation’s electricity mix. We need to move toward turning that mix on its head.
A federal “renewable electricity standard” requiring utilities to supply a minimum percentage of their
electricity from renewable sources would spur development of cleaner alternatives and save Americans
money. A 2004 UCS study, which is being updated, found that a federal standard requiring 20 percent
renewable electricity by 2020 would cut global warming pollution by the equivalent of taking tens of
million cars off the road, save consumers tens of billions in lower electricity and natural gas bills, and
create several hundred thousand new jobs. For more, go to:
www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/renewing-americas-economy.html.
PROTECT OUR FORESTS
The United States must do more to protect its forests, which reduce global warming by taking up carbon
dioxide. The EPA estimates that in 2005 forests and other “sinks” took up enough carbon dioxide to
offset more than 11 percent of the gross U.S. global warming emissions (for more, see:
www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads06/07ES.pdf). More can be done to increase the carbon
storage of U.S. forests. For example, timber managers could double the stored carbon in the forests in the
Pacific Northwest and Southeast if they lengthened the time between harvests and allowed older trees to
remain standing.
The United States also must do more to help developing countries protect and restore their forests.
Tropical deforestation now accounts for about 20 percent of all human-caused carbon dioxide emissions
each year. Many forest-rich developing countries are seeking to slow deforestation and help contribute to
the effort to slow climate change. The United States should develop partnerships with developing
countries to help them reduce emissions from tropical deforestation.
POLICIES TO GET US THERE
To significantly increase vehicle fuel economy, transition to renewable energy, ramp up energy
efficiency, and protect forests at home and abroad, we need an integrated set of policies, and Congress is
beginning to take a hard look at some of them.
Cap and trade: An economy wide cap-and-trade program would put a price on global warming pollution
and harness the power of the market to cut emissions efficiently. Under such a program, a cap is set at a
level of emissions based on scientific findings, and allowances are issued that correspond to a metric ton
of global warming emissions. The allowances are distributed to emitters that are free to trade the permits,
while reducing their overall emissions to match the cap level. Those facilities that can reduce emissions
cheaply can sell their extra allowances to companies facing higher reduction costs. Emissions then would
be cut in the most cost-effective manner.
A well-designed program would have a stringent cap on emissions designed to keep global average
temperatures below a 2 degrees Celsius rise above pre-industrial age levels, cover all sources of emissions
in the U.S. economy, and require all allowances to be auctioned rather than given away.
A cap-and-trade program will not be sufficient on its own. It should be implemented with policies that
make it easier and more affordable to achieve limits on global warming pollution.
Two bills in Congress contain all of these elements. The Safe Climate Act in the House and the Global
Warming Pollution Reduction Act in the Senate both establish a long-term framework to gradually reduce
global warming emissions by at least 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, while providing flexibility to
help companies meet the pollution reduction goals through a cap-and-trade program. The bills also call
for a greater reliance on clean, renewable energy sources and improved energy efficiency – solutions that
would have far-reaching positive results, such as cutting air pollution, protecting public health, creating
new jobs, and reducing our dependence on oil.
Fuel efficiency and biofuels: Studies by the National Academy of Sciences, the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology, the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, and UCS all show that existing
technology can easily improve fuel economy by 4 percent per year (to 34 to 35 mpg over 10 years), the
proposal President Bush set forth in his 2007 State of the Union address. Over the life of these more fuel
efficient vehicles, savings at the pump would pay for the added technology in a few years, saving a net of
$3,400, assuming gasoline costs $2.50 per gallon.
The president’s proposal is almost identical to House and Senate bills that address fuel economy.
Legislation introduced by Reps. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) and Todd Platts (R-Pa.) calls for new vehicle
fleets to average 35 miles per gallon by 2018 and requires automakers to improve fuel economy by 4
percent annually thereafter (unless it is technologically infeasible). A similar bill in the Senate, known as
“10-in-10,” would require average vehicle fuel economy to attain 35 miles per gallon by 2019. And Sens.
Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) and Larry Craig (R-Idaho) have introduced a bill that also would raise fuel
efficiency by 4 percent annually. For more information, go to:
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/fuel_economy/10-in-10-CAFE-Bill.html.
In his 2007 State of the Union address, the president also proposed a goal to produce 35 billion gallons of
renewable and alternative fuel by 2017. If this goal is met primarily with ethanol, UCS analysis shows
that the initiative would reduce global warming pollution by 160 million metric tons in 2017, the
equivalent of taking nearly 24 million of today’s cars and trucks off the road. However, that would
require construction of more than 40 ethanol production plants per year starting today. A better approach
would be to adopt a national version of California’s low carbon fuel standard, which would drive down
global warming pollution from fuels by 10 percent in 2020 and add provisions to ensure low carbon fuels
are produced sustainably. This would also ensure that the president’s goal is not met by producing
gasoline or diesel from coal, since liquid coal could increase global warming pollution by as much as 80
percent for every gallon used.
Renewable energy: A proposed House bill creating a national renewable electricity standard would
require utilities to gradually increase renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, geothermal and
bioenergy to 20 percent of total U.S. electricity use by 2020. Similar policies have already been enacted in
22 states and Washington, D.C. The Senate has passed a 10 percent by 2020 national renewable
electricity standard three times since 2002 – most recently in June 2005.
# # #
The Union of Concerned Scientists is the leading science-based nonprofit organization working for a
healthy environment and a safer world. Founded in 1969, UCS is headquartered in Cambridge,
Massachusetts, and has offices in Berkeley, California, and Washington, D.C. For more information, go
to www.ucsusa.org.